Daily Kos

Email: glacialerratic75 (at) gmail (dot) com

PA-05: We Are Penn State, and we saved the day

Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 07:42:53 AM PDT

What's that? Tired of Pennsylvania. I know. I just wanted to share this with everyone so they can appreciate just what young voters did for Obama on Tuesday (actually, it started months before Tuesday). This was in an email I got from the Centre County Obama group. The sender said to share with any interested parties (that's you):

Centre County was Obama's 2nd best county in the state, trailing only Philadelphia County.

Obama's margin of victory in Centre County (4,766 votes) was big enough to prevent Clinton from getting a 3-1 delegate split from our congressional district. Instead, it will be a 2-2 split, representing a 2-delegate swing towards Obama.

The margin of victory in Centre County also appears to have prevented Clinton from obtaining a significant milestone: a double-digit victory in PA. Given the dire straights her campaign is in, they are grasping at any loose straw they can. A double-digit victory is not one of them, thanks to us.

More below

PA-05: east vs. west, or why I was so wrong

Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 06:48:56 AM PDT

Congratulations to Mark McCracken, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania's 5th district. I've said numerous times I would be happy with any of the 3 candidates, but I must say, I didn't think McCracken would win. I thought it would be Cahir, then Vilello, then McCracken.  Shows you how much I know!

As for the Republicans, bummer, bummer, bummer. Peterson's late endorsement pushed Glenn Thompson just past the 2 scandal-plagued rich boys, Shaner and Walker. The Republicans didn't drive themselves off a cliff, as we would have hoped. Their rare level-headedness has made this longshot race even more of a longshot now.

I do derive some pleasure in knowing that Shaner wasted about $1.5 million of his own money, and I hope that this ends his nascent political career.

Some meager analysis of both sides on the flip.

Poll

Should the netroots bother with PA-05

22%8 votes
17%6 votes
11%4 votes
45%16 votes
2%1 votes

| 35 votes | Vote | Results

PA-05: 12 candidate sextravaganza! with video!

Fri Apr 18, 2008 at 07:32:29 AM PDT

Did I hook you with the title? There is video, and there is a sex scandal.  Scandaliscious details on the flip . . . It's getting close now to Pennsylvania's primary on Tuesday, and I probably won't be able to write about my congressional race again before that. You see, I shun the computer on weekends, and I'll be doing my part to GOTV for Obama for these last few days anyway.

I thought I would do a prediction diary, but how can I guess what will happen in the 9-man GOP clusterfuck for this nomination? And our chances at flipping this district in November could be greatly improved depending on which poor choice as little as 12% of the district Republicans finally settle on. At this point, the 3 frontrunners all have some sort of scandal in their backgrounds, and the other 6 have no money. The fractious Republican primary seriously couldn't have gone any better for us. Retiring Rep. John Peterson must be kicking himself for endorsing so late in the game. He really could have prevented all this infighting. But he didn't, so  . .

PA-05: Update: Walker charged! the Republicans go negative, w/ videos

Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:57:41 AM PDT

Update: Holy crap. This rumor has been going around the comment boards but now Walker has been charged with stalking! See below fold for excerpt! /end update

Oh boy, the 2 wealthy front-runners for the Republican nomination in Pennsylvania's open seat 5th district are really pounding on each other now.  The other 7 candidates must be hoping that the voters turn away disgusted from the squabbling to choose one of them instead - but which one? Retiring Rep. John Peterson's late endorsement of Centre County GOP chairman Glenn Thompson only seems to have confused the race even more.

Meanwhile, the 3 Democrats keep plugging along. Cahir has an ambitious schedule across the district over the next 6 days. McCracken spoke to the Penn State College Dems earlier this week. I'm not sure what Vilello has been doing, and his events page doesn't list anything.

Poll

Whose ad is funnier?

4%1 votes
54%12 votes
40%9 votes

| 22 votes | Vote | Results

Updated: Obama camp response to BitterGate protests

Tue Apr 15, 2008 at 09:35:42 AM PDT

This is a follow-up to 2 diaries yesterday (one from poblano and one from AHiddenSaint) that highlighted Hillary AFSCME supporters milking the bitter controversy for all it's worth. Over the weekend in Altoona, PA, 8 people (at least 2 from out of state) protested in front of Obama's Altoona HQ - a supposed spontaneous outpouring of outrage. Their message? - "We are not bitter and we have the signs to prove it!"

Supposedly, this was one of 6 similar Clinton-related NOT-BITTER protests across Pennsylvania over the weekend.

Obama supporters are responding now

Poll

Which are you?

15%35 votes
0%2 votes
0%2 votes
5%13 votes
13%31 votes
7%17 votes
33%75 votes
22%52 votes

| 227 votes | Vote | Results

PA-05: UPDATE - Peterson endorses! fundraising; race narrowing

Fri Apr 11, 2008 at 07:41:01 AM PDT

UPDATE: Peterson has endorsed Glenn Thompson! Well, this changes the dynamic a bit. There will be no western concensus candidate. Will the westerners line up behind Peterson's pick? Will the money start flowing in for Thompson, who has been a non-starter up to this point? /end update

It's increasingly looking like Bill Cahir will win the Democratic nomination in Pennsylvania's 5th district open seat race. He's raised over $120,000, far more than his 2 rivals, according to the financial reports submitted this week.

On the Republican side, it will come down to Walker and Shaner, with the possibility of a Peterson endorsement uniting the western Republicans behind either Stroup or Richardson. Geography does play a role in this district (6 candidates from the populous eastern part and 3 from the larger west). But time is running out for the retiring Peterson to make a difference in this 9-man GOP race when so many ads have already been run by the 3 rich candidates (all from the east).

See my previous diaries for run-downs on all of these candidates, with many links, etc. Fundraising numbers, and more on the flip.

PA-05: GOP spending and internal polling

Wed Apr 09, 2008 at 09:24:49 AM PDT

Watching the 9-man GOP free-for-all primary race for Pennsylvania's only open seat is pretty entertaining. Keep it real ugly, boys - it only helps the eventual Democratic nominee. (For those not familiar with the race, in previous diaries I've briefly profiled the 9 Republicans, and compared the 3 Democrats on a number of issues.)

Now a second of the 3 rich candidates has triggered the FEC's Millionaire amendment by spending over $350,000 of his own money. 32-year-old coal heir Derek Walker says he has spent $365,000 of his own money on the race so far. While 28-year-old Matt Shaner has spent $1.2 million of his own money on the race thus far.

The linked CDT article also covers Walker's internal polling and the infighting among the 9. Juicy quotes below the fold . .

PA-05: Uh-oh, Club for Growth backs Shaner

Tue Apr 08, 2008 at 08:09:50 AM PDT

Hi all PA 5th-ers and other interested parties. I've been on vacation and have missed a lot of activity here.

I missed Obama speaking to a record crowd of 22,000 people on the Old Main lawn at PSU. (aarrgghh!! couldn't give up a planned vacation for that!)

I missed the announcement that Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the 3 most populous counties of the district (Centre, Clinton, and Clearfield). Thank you Senator Obama for that gift that will keep on giving for years to come. This is exactly why I support Obama. The Obama campaign now has 5th district offices open in State College, Dubois, and St. Mary's - plus Williamsport, which is just outside the 5th district. This is a massive presence.

I also missed a few candidate forums and big endorsements. More on the flip . .

PA-05: The wingnuttiest candidate Part 2

Tue Mar 25, 2008 at 10:07:38 AM PDT

Yesterday I rated 4 of the 9 Republicans running for the nomination in this open seat district on a wingnuterry scale. Today, I'll get to the remaining 5. Under normal circumstances in this R+10 district (and perhaps this year is not normal), the winner of the Republican nomination is essentially the winner of the seat. So we should know who we might be dealing with.

To recap:

Chris Exarchos netted a measly 1 wingnut.
John Krupa netted 9 winguts.
Lou Radkowski netted 3 wingnuts.
Keith Richardson netted 8 wingnuts.

Poll

Who is the wingnuttiest Republican running in PA-05?

1%1 votes
5%3 votes
1%1 votes
20%11 votes
50%27 votes
3%2 votes
1%1 votes
0%0 votes
14%8 votes

| 54 votes | Vote | Results

PA-05: Rating the wingnuttiest GOP candidate

Mon Mar 24, 2008 at 11:30:45 AM PDT

There are 12 candidates running to replace the retiring John Peterson in Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional district, 9 Republicans and 3 Democrats. This is a large, mostly rural district in northwest/central Pennsylvania that includes all or part of 17 counties. Peterson generally got 60% of the vote when running for re-election.

Today I visited for the first time the website of John Krupa, one of the lesser known (and that's saying a lot) of the esteemed 9. I was bowled over by his wingnuttery. This is disturbing because in most years, it is a foregone conclusion that the Republican nominee will be the winner of the general election. The chances of flipping this district in November, though still small, are improved by shifting demographics, Democratic excitment over the presidential race, strong Dem candidates, and the weak 9-man GOP field. Peterson has been meeting with each of the 9 candidates and is expected to endorse one or a few - thus hoping to narrow the field and avoid any unpleasant surprises.

PA-05: comparing 3 Dems on healthcare

Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 07:51:30 AM PDT

The 12-man field in Pennsylvania's only open seat race keeps plugging along, now with added attention since the Obama and Clinton campaigns have set up shop here and are making a massive push for new registrations (at least Obama is for sure). The percentage make-up of Centre County Dem registrations reached a high water mark last week already. I expect this final week to continue that trend.

A number of my previous diaries have covered this race - from whether or not we can realistically hope to flip the district, to comparing the 3 Democratic candidates on Iraq and on the economy.

The local paper, the Centre Daily Times is also running weekly short Q&A sets from each of the 12 candidates. So far they have covered Iraq, the economy, and today they cover a local issue, the tolling of I-80 in Pennsylvania.

PA-05: Comparing 3 Dem Candidates: Economy

Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 10:36:52 AM PDT

Here is my second diary comparing the 3 Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional district, Mark McCracken, Bill Cahir, and Rick Vilello, by using their websites, blog entries, and press coverage. Earlier, I compared them on Iraq. Sadly, I think my poll in that diary must have been freep'd, or rather "Cahir'd." ;) I don't blame you, Cahir supporters. So I guess I'll leave out the poll this time.

My local paper, The Centre Daily Times, is sending questions to each of the 12 candidates vying for the seat, and features one set of answers weekly. This week's question was about the economy:

What would you do as a congressman to help provide for job-creating economic development in the 5th Congressional District? What are the key elements of your manufacturing policy?

I bet everyone can guess how the Republicans answered the CDT questions: Taxes bad!! Dem answers on the flip.

PA-05: Can we flip it?

Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 08:45:20 AM PDT

Ahhh, primary season . . An open Congressional seat. An historic and inspiring close presidential primary race. Does it get any better for a political junkie in Pennsylvania? I think not.

I'm going to do another "comparing the 3 Dems on Issue x" diary tomorrow, but right now I want to talk about those pesky Republicans, among other things. I'm really beginning to think, yes we can change my R+10 district blue this year. It is a perfect storm of bad Republican candidates, good Democratic candidates, and excitement over the presidential race. More on the flip . .

Poll

Turning PA's 5th district blue . . .

52%20 votes
10%4 votes
23%9 votes
13%5 votes

| 38 votes | Vote | Results

The Keystone State

Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 09:48:34 AM PDT

I'm not exactly happy about last night's events (I really thought Obama would pull off Texas) but I'm pretty excited about all the attention that will be lavished on me, yes ME, over the next 7 weeks. We need this party-building here in PA, to protect our vulnerable freshmen representatives, and to help swing our only open-seat race (my own PA-05) from long-time red status.

I only hope that the campaign stays positive (yeah, I know, keep dreaming.) There's a lot of work to do for Obama to overcome the remaining polling deficits and Hillary's so-called new momentum. I'm not looking forward to being bombarded with red phone BOO! commercials either.

So this morning I'm looking around at the coverage here to get a sense of the impending circus.

Poll

Extending the race to Pennsylvania . .

22%15 votes
16%11 votes
11%8 votes
5%4 votes
14%10 votes
14%10 votes
4%3 votes
10%7 votes

| 68 votes | Vote | Results

PA-05: Comparing 3 Dem candidates: Iraq

Mon Mar 03, 2008 at 11:07:22 AM PDT

I have been writing about the race in my distirct, Pennsylvania's 5th, since right after incumbent Republican John "drill drill drill" Peterson announced his surprise retirement in January.

First, a few of the top-tier candidates (state lawmakers) opted out of running. Then the candidates started coming out of the woodwork: now 9 Republicans and 3 Democrats have qualified to get on the ballot.

All three of the Democrats now have informative websites up and each also has a presence here on DKos either directly or through representatives. Since I am not affiliated with any of the campaigns and since I am still trying to decide which of these candidates to vote for, as I know some other PA 5th-ers are as well, I'll keep writing about the race. Today I'll start off what may become a series by looking at each candidates' statements about Iraq. I'll use their websites and any other press coverage available. So, starting off alphabetically . . .

Poll

Which candidate has the strongest stated Iraq stance?

75%42 votes
7%4 votes
17%10 votes

| 56 votes | Vote | Results

PA-05: Dem primary developments

Wed Feb 27, 2008 at 11:46:57 AM PDT

All 3 of the Democratic Candidates running to replace retiring Rep. John Peterson in Pennsylvania's 5th district now have websites and ActBlue pages.

Bill Cahir: website, ActBlue
Mark McCracken: website, ActBlue
Richard Vilello: website (a placeholder for now, it seems), ActBlue

Both Cahir and McCracken have gotten some endorsements and local press over the last week as well, but I haven't heard much out of the Vilello campaign.

Details on the flip

Pennsylvania matters . . maybe

Thu Feb 21, 2008 at 09:16:48 AM PDT

Though I'm safely on the O-train, I kind of hope that Hillary Clinton survives March 4th somehow. If she does, that means my own perennially too-late-to-the-game Pennsylvania will be receiving 6 weeks of undivided attention from 2 great candidates.

I haven't seen anyone diary the latest Franklin & Marshall poll, out today. (UPDATE: woops, dansac just posted a diary on it. give him some love.)

Hillary still leads considerably 44% to 32%, but the gap has closed since just last month (C-40%, O-20%). Full details are available at the link. More than 20% of Democratic primary voters still haven't decided, and of those that have, 37% say they could change their minds.

There's a lot of persuading to be done, Senators!

PA-05: GOP hopeful Keith Richardson reads DKos

Mon Feb 18, 2008 at 08:09:07 AM PDT

My last diary was a run-down of the 12 candidates who have filed to replace retiring Rep. John Peterson. Looking at my previous diaries, it should be clear that I read a lot about this race. Oh, the many Google Alerts I get!

Anyway, in that last diary, I made an offhand summarization of one of the Republican candidates, Keith Richardson, and included a link to his website. It seems Mr. Richardson saw that diary and has taken issue with what I wrote. He thinks I just made it all up, apparently.

Well, Since I can't add a comment to his blog, Lexis Nexis redeems me on the flip.


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