Huge BHO supporter: Race should go on 'til MT and SD
Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 01:14:55 PM PDT
I'm an Obama supporter who has wished for a long time that HRC quit the race. I now believe she should stay on till the last primary (but not until Denver)
It would have been wise and smart, even from a selfish standpoint, for Hillary Clinton to quit the race before March 4th, and before having gone negative on Barack Obama. As things stand now, however, I think it would be best for the party if HRC were to stay on the race until June 4th.
Seven reasons below the fold:
- Helps unite the party:the Taylor Marshes will be quite upset if she doesn't lose clearly but is "pushed" out (edit: by this I mean the small but influential number of democrats who are fervently for HRC, many of whom are committed activists, donors etc)
- With only very few states remaining, those states will feel slighted if the campaign ends before it's their turn
- The more HRC stays in the race, the less influential the Clintons become, as they call in more and more favors, spend more and more money and show their true colors more and more. Good for a clean slate, for new politics. Also, this primary race is also a race between the "swing state" strategy and the "50 state strategy"; a clear victory by the latter will influence future democratic strategies.
- Obama needs to be seen as the clear winner, something that a final state, popular vote and delegate tally will provide, partly because he needs to cancel out the perceived cloud over his candidacy due to FL and MI He can then gon on to McCain "Having campaigned in every one of the fifty states" which is a nice meme.
- The drip in support from SD's is good for Obama, the choice by SDs is seen as an individual choice and is good press. A massive SD move to Obama would be seen as a back room deal.
- As has been shown over and over, the democratic parties in traditionally ignored states benefit from contested primaries
- After June 3rd, superdelegates will have all the elements they need to select one candidate or the other. By, say, June 10th, supers should be pushed to announce their voting intention for Denver. With a clear lead in all metrics, should he also win the superdelegates, Obama will be seen as the clear winner, and with ample time to unite the dem party and defeat John McCain.
Finally, I'd like to point out that it's counterproductive for Obama people to call for HRC to quit. Stubborn HRC supporters will only feel pushed to dig their heels in, whereas the general public (due to certain misperceptions) will feel the Obama camp is trying to call victory before the game is up.